Barbara W. Tuchman

“War is the unfolding of miscalculations.”

“For a festering grievance, nothing is more potent than the feeling that one has been ignored.”

“The amateur, whether in politics or warfare, is almost inevitably a ruthless sentimentalist.”

“A phenomenon noticeable throughout history regardless of place or period is the pursuit by governments of policies contrary to their own interests.”

“Wooden-headedness, the source of self-deception, is a factor that plays a remarkably large role in government.”

“It is a human inclination to hope things will work out, despite evidence to the contrary, and to believe what one wants to believe.”

“Learning from experience is a faculty almost never practiced.”

“The best reason for putting anything on paper is that one may then be rid of it.”

“Strong prejudices in an ill-formed mind are hazardous to government, and when combined with a position of power even more so.”

“Books are the carriers of civilization. Without books, history is silent, literature dumb, science crippled, thought and speculation at a standstill.”

“The writer's object is to hold the reader's attention.”

“Men will not believe what does not fit in with their plans or suit their pre-arrangements.”

“No one is so vulnerable to delusion as the man who is sure he is right.”

“Disaster is rarely as pervasive as it seems from recorded accounts.”